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Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Forecasters monitoring the potential for a blockbuster storm to take shape

In the days after Thanksgiving, AccuWeather forecasters say there is the potential for a storm to cause widespread travel delays for those traveling home after the long holiday weekend or heading back to work or school across a huge area of the United States.

Different scenarios are being presented at this stage because the exact size and strength of the potential storm is still yet to be determined. But if the storm, which isn't even on weather maps yet, comes together in one extreme circumstance, it could trigger severe weather and wintry conditions across the central and eastern U.S.

The backbone of the potential storm is currently way out in the northern Pacific, which means it will be several days before the storm's true extent will be known. However, meteorologists have been able to project multiple scenarios, including one that shows a blockbuster storm unleashing a slew of weather hazards across the eastern third of the U.S.

How quickly this storm develops and then where it tracks will determine the extent and intensity of rain, thunderstorms, wind and even snow over the eastern third of the nation from Sunday to Tuesday. In an extreme scenario, there may be power outages and risk to lives and property.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP

Some of the key features were associated with surface disturbances and ripples in the jet stream located way out over the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday and were not expected to reach the West Coast of the U.S. until the end of the week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said.

This image, captured on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2020, shows a portion of the northern Pacific Ocean with severe storms and associated cloud patterns. (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)

Data over the Pacific Ocean is generally limited to ship and buoy reports as well as satellite information. Once a storm moves over North America, it moves into a vast field of data sources which generally help improve weather forecast information.

How these disturbances interact with each other upon moving across the U.S. this weekend into early next week will determine the upcoming storm's intensity and track. There are two primary scenarios for how this storm will unfold.

"If the two disturbances join up quickly, then a storm would likely form sooner, strengthen fast and tend to track from the southern Plains or Gulf Coast toward the Great Lakes or Northeast states," Sojda said.

In this first scenario, the storm is likely to move along at a slow pace and heavy rain and gusty winds would tend to affect a broad area of the eastern third of the U.S.

In the more extreme case, a severe weather outbreak might unfold in part of the Southern states and a strip of accumulating snow could even extend from parts of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys to the Great Lakes region. Enough rain may fall on the saturated ground to lead to flooding problems, while winds may be strong enough to knock over trees, trigger power outages and cause turbulence for airline passengers over a broad area of the eastern third of the nation.

There is also the possibility that a big storm fails to take shape with much lesser impacts.

If the two Pacific disturbances -- one associated with a northern branch of the jet stream and the other associated with the southern branch of the jet stream -- stay separated, then a big storm may not develop at all or it might not develop until it has nearly passed through the eastern U.S, according to Sojda.

In a scenario where the storms stay separated, rain would be more brief, spotty and lighter in nature. Any thunderstorms that arise may or may not be severe and could be limited to the immediate Gulf Coast or a portion of Florida.

A weaker and faster-moving storm might also have a greater chance of bringing a period of steady snow to the interior Northeast early next week.

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In any case, it appears an outbreak of colder air will invade the Central and Eastern states with lake-effect snow from northern Michigan to parts of West Virginia, western Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York state early next week.

The duration and magnitude of the cold air and lake-effect would be somewhat dependent on the intensity of the storm as well. A strong storm would move more slowly and leave more intense cold air in its wake. A weaker storm would move along at a swift pace and the following cold shot would tend to be brief and likely not as intense.

Meteorologists will continue to provide updates on the progress of the storm and its potential outcome in the days ahead on AccuWeather.com.

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W. PETE MAIRS

W. PETE MAIRS
Walter D. “Pete” Mairs, 81, died peacefully on July 23, 2021. Born in Avon, N.Y., on Sept. 3, 1939, Pete was a longtime resident of Geneva, N.Y., and these past many years in Buffalo, N.Y., as well as his beloved Silver Lake. Pete is survived by his wife, Linda Bergstrom Mairs, a loving and true companion; children, Mimi C. Mairs, Jonathan B. Mairs; sisters, June Huff, Helen Dole; brother, Thomas Mairs; stepchildren, Daniel Brinkworth, Jennie Ramsey; sister-in-law, Anne Bergstrom, eight beautiful grandchildren, and nieces and nephews. A service and celebration of life is planned for the fall when all can share the joy of Pete’s life together. Arrangements by Stephenson – Dougherty Funeral Home, Avon, N.Y.

Editor's Note: It was a privilege knowing and working with Pete Mairs during his presidency of the Silver Lake Institute. He was a kind and gentle man, but also firm in his leadership. I served as Treasurer and Chaplain of SLI during those years and I could always depend on Pete's presence in the worship service. He was a man of faith and a gem of a human being. May he rest in God's care.

GERALD C. SAHRLE

GERALD C. SAHRLE
Gerald C. Sahrle, 80, of Perry, passed away on Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021, at Strong Memorial Hospital in Rochester. He was born on Oct. 10, 1941, in Wayland, N.Y., to the late Charles A. and Helen I. (Blowers) Sahrle. Gerry was a line foreman for 32 1/2 years for NYSE&G, working out of the Perry and Hamburg locations, and was a Town of Perry Councilman. He was a member of the Free and Accepted Masons of the Constellation Lodge -404 in Perry. He was an avid fisherman, hunter and woodworker. He is survived by his wife, Valary A. (Conley) Sahrle; 1 son, Gerald (Pamela) Sahrle II of Silver Springs; 2 sisters, Millie Edmond of Greece, Bonnie Fink of Winston-Salem, N.C., 3 brothers, Ronald (Linda) Sahrle of Dansville, Robert (Susan) Sahrle of Springwater, Kenneth Sahrle of Dansville; 5 grandchildren, Bradley Musscarella, Stone and Winston Sahrle, Conley and Cooper Gayton; along with many nieces, nephews and friends. Along with his parents, he is preceded in death by a brother, Thomas Sahrle, who passed away in 2012. Services will be held at the convenience of the family. Gerry will be laid to rest in West Perry Cemetery. Memorial contributions may be made to the Perry Center Fire Department, P.O. Box 204, Perry, NY 14530. For more information, please call (585) 237-2626 or to leave a message of condolence, visit www.eatonwatsonfuneralhome.com. Arrangements completed by Eaton-Watson Funeral Home, LLC. 98 North Main Street, Perry, NY 14530.

Editor's Note: Gerald and Valarie could always be seen in the family pew with Pamela, Stone and Winston at Perry First United Methodist Church and continue to be loved. Gerry will be sorely missed. Both were supporters of the Arts at the Silver Lake Institute and Valarie was active in painting and participating in the Annual Show in August. Valarie's presence was always valued and appreciated.

KATHARINE E. PRACZKAJLO ("Kathy P.")

KATHARINE E. PRACZKAJLO ("Kathy P.")
"Kathy P." passed November 8, 2021, of Hamburg and Boston, NY. Beloved daughter of Joseph and Barbara Michalak; loving sister of Daniel Michalak; devoted wife of the late Jeffrey Praczkajlo; cherished mother of Jennifer (Shawn) Jump; loving babcia of Lily Jump; also survived by many beloved family members and friends who became her family. A Celebration of Life will be held at a later date.

Editor's Note: "Kathy P." as she was better known to us at Silver Lake was an annual summer visitor for most of the last number of years at the invitation of Silver Laker Julia Hoffner. She stayed at the Hoffner Cottage, and became known as both the fun visitor with the vivacious smile to the neighbors at the intersection of Haven Ave. and the Ames Walkway. Kathy P. and Julie could be seen walking and talking between the cottage and the Hoffner boathouse where they could be close to the water. She was also occasionally seen at the Saturday morning breakfasts at Stoody Hall. Her stay was anywhere between 4 days and a week where she had the opportunity to develop a love for Silver Lake. She was not yet eligible for retirement when late last week she developed "a cold" and had to remain home from her job. She did not update her condition over the weekend so the local police made a wellness visit and found her deceased on Monday. She was one of those many people who found Silver Lake and friendship for brief respites where she also found new strength and energy to return to work. She is being particularly mourned by those in the Haven/Ames neighborhood. She will be memorialized next summer at the annual Celebration of Life Memorial Service at Epworth Hall.

BRENDA J. PADDOCK

BRENDA J. PADDOCK
Brenda Joan Paddock, 82, of Perry, born April 15, 1939, now resides in heaven with her Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. Brenda met Jesus as her Savior in 1965. She met him in person on Nov. 14, 2021. She had a beautiful homecoming with music, singing and praying, leading her into Glory. Her last words were “I am well, I am well.”

Brenda’s greatest loves were her family and friends. Brenda had five children with her husband Roger: Don and Daelene Paddock of Florida, Jody and Tim Von Sanden of Pavilion, Bradley and Jeanie Paddock of Warsaw, Jennifer and Paul Guy of Massachusetts, and Nathan and Jill Paddock of Perry.

Brenda dearly loved her grandchildren: Jessica Morillo, Nikki and Clint O’Brien, Luke Paddock, Paul Paddock, Ian and Brooklyn Paddock, Joe and Louana Paddock, Burke and Megan Paddock, Aaron Paddock, Ellen Paddock, Andrew Paddock, Rachael Paddock, Abigail Paddock, Erik and Cassandra Von Sanden, Jacquelyn and Michael Jones, Tim Von Sanden, Brandon and Brandee Paddock, Jamey and Laura Paddock, Peter and Kara Guy, Candy and Jay Waitkevich, Marlo and Ryan Bolger and Jenna and Rory Peterson.

Brenda was blessed and loved her great grandchildren: Chloe, Olivia and Nicholas Von Sanden, Joshua and Jaxon Morillo, Jameson and Cassandra O’Brien, Atlas Paddock, Noah and Ezra Jones, Colton, Brantley and Charlotte Guy, Cameron Waitkevich, Amelia Bolger and Brennen Leonard.

Brenda is also survived by her brother and sister in laws; Frank and Emma Paddock, Viva and Jim Phillips-Richardson and Kurt and Lynn Paddock.

Brenda first started working as a secretary at Perry Central School. She then assisted her husband building Paddock’s Breeding Service. Roger and Brenda together built and ran the Sandsabarn teenage nightclub. Brenda was owner and operator of Serendipity Travel. Brenda’s pleasures included playing organ and piano. She played at a number of area churches along with performing for her loved ones. UPDATED -- Brenda also played with conviction at both indoor and outdoor services at the Silver Lake Institute where her grandson, Luke, sang at Epworth Hall on several occasions and was appreciated by all who heard his inspiring voice.

Brenda was preceded in death by her parents Noble and Freda Buckland, her husband Roger and son Bradley.

A Committal service at West Perry Cemetery will be held tomorrow, Wednesday, November 17 at 11 a.m., followed by a Celebration of Life at LaGrange Baptist Church at 4 p.m.

Memorial donations may be made in Brenda’s honor to the LaGrange Baptist Church 7092 LaGrange Rd. Perry, NY 14530 or to the First Congregational Church P.O. Box 156 Perry, NY 14530. Arrangements completed by Eaton-Watson Funeral Home, LLC. 98 N. Main St., Perry, N.Y. 14530. For more information or to sign the online guest registry please visit www.eatonwatsonfuneralhome.com.

AUGUST 4-7, 2022

AUGUST 4-7, 2022
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